Institutional-grade sports betting research, delivered before tipoff.

SignalDesk runs seven models through one Monte Carlo engine, ranks only the highest-conviction edges, and publishes every pick to BetStamp before the market closes. Verified hit rate — across — graded bets.

Review tonight's card See the process
500,000 paths per prop 6 PM ET delivery window Third-party verification
Tonight's research brief
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Verified win rate, based on timestamped BetStamp grades and updated automatically.
Live
Graded bets
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Model count
7
Breakeven
52.4%
Edge concentration by confidence band
Core
84
Selective
62
Long tail
31
Only published bets count toward the record. Data synced live
Verified on BetStamp · — graded bets · — hit rate · Live since April 1
Inside one simulation

A distribution, not a guess.

Every prop runs half a million paths across usage, pace, matchup, rest, line-movement, variance, and form. The book sets a single number. We build a distribution and measure the gap.

500,000
Monte Carlo paths per prop
7
Models composited per pick
52.4%
Breakeven at −110 odds
—
Verified hit rate
Projected stat · distribution
Our model Book line

Illustrative. The shaded region left of the book line is the probability our model assigns to UNDER — and the gap we bet on.

Market discipline

A tighter workflow produces a cleaner card.

The point is not to bet everything the model touches. SignalDesk narrows the board through a fixed review process, then ships only the positions that still hold after line movement, injury context, and hold-adjusted pricing.

Simulation confidence 87 / 100
Agreement across the model stack after variance control and matchup adjustments.
Market confirmation 74 / 100
Line movement and hold-adjusted pricing still support the wager at publication time.
Execution quality 91 / 100
Best-book routing, Kelly guidance, and timestamped release reduce slippage for members.
11:00
Run simulations and identify initial outliers.
14:00
Reprice against injuries, pace shifts, and books.
16:30
Cut the board to the highest-surviving edges.
18:00
Publish the final ranked card and log to BetStamp.
How it works

From raw stats to a ranked card, every afternoon.

No tout tweets. No parlays for the algorithm. Just the props where the model's distribution disagrees with the book — measurable, logged, and graded.

01
Simulate

Each player prop runs 500,000 Monte Carlo paths across seven models — pace, usage, matchup, rest, line-movement, variance regression, and recent form. The output is a distribution, not a point estimate.

02
Verify

Every prediction is posted to BetStamp before tipoff. Timestamped, tamper-proof, third-party graded. If a pick doesn't show up there, it doesn't count.

03
Deliver

By 6 PM ET, the top-edge bets are ranked and delivered. Kelly sizing, best book, confidence tier. You pick how many to play.

Live track record

Last grades, pulled live.

Every row below is a real money bet, graded on BetStamp. We don't choose which ones to show.

View all on BetStamp →
Date Pick Line Result Hit rate
Loading live results…

Showing — of — graded bets. Full history on BetStamp.

Where the edge is

Hit rate by stat & side.

Live aggregate across the full graded archive. Updated automatically — no cherry-picked snapshot.

Stat / Side Sample Record Hit rate
Loading stat-side breakdown…
Pricing

Start free. Upgrade when the model's made you money.

Everyone gets a full ranked card every night. Paid tiers unlock the intelligence behind each pick.

Free
$0 / month
Ten system-picked bets per night, with win probability, best book, and live grading. No card required.
  • 10 ranked bets / night
  • Win probability per pick
  • Best book per bet
  • Live game tracking
  • Game predictions
  • BetStamp-verified record
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Paid tiers — coming soon
Signal$50 Edge$100 Sharp$150 Quant$200 Whale$250

Signal through Whale unlock full reasoning, Kelly sizing, raw simulation data, backtests, and real-time alerts. Join the waitlist to get early access when they open.

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FAQ

Honest answers.

Is this legal in my state?

SignalDesk is an analytics product — we publish predictions, not a sportsbook. Placing bets is governed by your state's sports-betting laws. If sports betting is legal where you are, you can act on what you see here. If it isn't, treat us as research.

How is this different from OddsJam?

OddsJam is an odds-comparison tool — it tells you which book has the best line right now. SignalDesk tells you which prop to bet in the first place. We simulate the outcome, rank the edges, and log every call on BetStamp before tipoff so the record can't be edited.

What happens to my money?

Nothing — we never touch it. Your money stays with whichever sportsbook you bet through. We don't custody funds, take a cut of your winnings, or ask for your book credentials. The only money that moves between us is your subscription.

Who runs SignalDesk?

A two-person team: quant engineer + product. We've been running the model privately since early 2025 and opened it publicly on April 1 after logging enough graded bets to publish a track record. Reach us on X or Discord — links in the footer.

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